When I read The Wave: In Pursuit of the Rogues, Freaks, and Giants of the Ocean, one statistic that astonished me was that “two large ships sink every week on average [worldwide] ” according to Dr Wolfgang Rosenthal. The author, Susan Carson, suggests that the numbers are high, but thatContinue Reading
Every year, the ABS puts out an analysis of mortality statistics for the calendar year, imaginatively entitled Deaths. And most years I post a quick analysis. The most recent one is based on mortality statistics for the calendar year 2012. This year I’ve focused on mortality improvement, and what has beenContinue Reading
At the Actuaries Institute Financial Services Forum, in May, I’m running a Panel discussion entitled Is MOS Accounting Responsible for the Woes of the Retail Life Industry? This post gives some background to the question and why it seemed a good topic for a panel discussion. What are the woes of theContinue Reading
Bayseian probability seems quite obvious once it is explained, but it is incredibly counterintuitive. Using Bayesian methods is one of the “thinking slow” methods that Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow identifies – very few people can do it intuitively. So via Barry Ritholtz, here is a great example ofContinue Reading
A few months ago, I posted about some press actuaries had received about their crystal balls proving inadequate in the life insurance industry. Well the news hasn’t been getting any better. Recent reports from two of Australia’s major life reinsurers have continued the bad news. Most recently, APRA released theirContinue Reading
As Sydney continues to be ringed by fire, it seems a good time to repost something I wrote about extreme weather events after the Black Saturday bushfires. I’m with Adam Bandt, now is the time to be talking about climate change, and its impact on the extremes of weather.Continue Reading
Today there was a comment about actuaries in the Financial Review – in a much more prominent place than most actuaries achieve. The context was a downgrade to AMP profit expectations, but it has wider interest in that Chanticleer finds actuaries in the life insurance industry wanting: Actuaries have a wonderful reputationContinue Reading
Last year, I was part of a panel discussion about ICAAP and the Appointed Actuary. It got such a good discussion that I’ve been asked to reprise it at this year’s Actuaries Summit. But a few things have happened since then, notably: Companies have moved into the new world ofContinue Reading
I’m in New Zealand right now, in the middle of pouring rain. But I’m enough of an Australian, and an insurance professional, that I can’t help reading everything my very slow internet connection will let me read about the bushfires. I’m so relieved that despite needing that “Catastrophic” rating forContinue Reading
Wandering around Sydney’s CBD, as I do on a daily basis, you will always find pedestrians completely ignoring road rules. They cross the road against the traffic lights, or when there are no lights at all. They will walk around barriers designed to force them to cross at the lights,Continue Reading