Four years after starting my COVID reflections series, I’ve learned that:

– Looking for a bit of beauty every day is a great way of finding positives in the world
– Writing about what is happening the world is much better for my state of mind than doomscrolling
– A community of people reading and reflecting is even better!
– Basic, widely available data and information is a vital part of government’s role, and one which they are still not doing enough.Continue Reading

I’m going to be voting Yes in the referendum about the Voice to Parliament. Making decisions about people without giving them a say is not a great way to make great decisions. And it hasn’t worked.

To illustrate, I’m going to talk about a measure I do know a lot about – mortality. The life expectancy of indigenous people in Australia is much lower than for all Australians. And the gap is growing.Continue Reading

The first phase of uninhabitability is uninsurability – Michael Mann, renowned climate scientist.

As climate risks to property increase, the people who live in places exposed to those risk are less and less able to afford to insure their properties. Which will start to create climate ghettos. And the housing crisis in Australia will worsen, as areas in areas with high risk of disaster become uninsurable.Continue Reading

Book Review: Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models can lead us Astray and What we can do about it, by Erica Thompson

Today I’m reviewing a book that I loved, a book for any actuary, or indeed model builder or model user to read. I felt as if I highlighted half of this book, so I’ll try and give you enough of a flavour of Thompson’s insights so that you feel compelled to read it yourself.Continue Reading

I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for 2022 here. There is a link to the whole list, but here are my favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, public policy, life advice and some token fiction so I hope you’ll find one you like.Continue Reading

Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view.

On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter.Continue Reading