Statistics

On:
In: Blogging, Covid19, Statistics

Four years after starting my COVID reflections series, I’ve learned that:

– Looking for a bit of beauty every day is a great way of finding positives in the world
– Writing about what is happening the world is much better for my state of mind than doomscrolling
– A community of people reading and reflecting is even better!
– Basic, widely available data and information is a vital part of government’s role, and one which they are still not doing enough.Continue Reading

On:
In: Australian Politics, Demography, Statistics

I’m going to be voting Yes in the referendum about the Voice to Parliament. Making decisions about people without giving them a say is not a great way to make great decisions. And it hasn’t worked.

To illustrate, I’m going to talk about a measure I do know a lot about – mortality. The life expectancy of indigenous people in Australia is much lower than for all Australians. And the gap is growing.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Insurance, Statistics

Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view.

On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Health care, Statistics

What does “living with Covid” mean in Australia in 2022? There is continued pressure on the hospital and health care system, with illness creating disruption in most workplaces. It is likely that life expectancy has reduced by 6 – 12 months.

The impact is definitely substantially worse than a bad flu season, but at the same time it isn’t the catastrophe it would have been without an effective vaccine.

So what should we do about it? My view is that we should continue to look for mitigations that work to limit the spread of Covid19, without having too much of an impact on day to day lives – a vaccination plus strategy. On vaccination, we should make a bigger attempt to vaccinate those who aren’t yet fully vaccinated – the school children in the 5-11 age group are not even 50% vaccinated yet, only two thirds of adults have had their third booster doses. We should be monitoring and improving ventilation and/or air filtration in all public buildings – eg schools, offices, shopping centres. While that will be expensive, the cost of this much illness is quite substantial, even ignoring the human implications. We should continue the cultural change we have started of wearing masks where possible (such as public transport) and staying home when we are sick. Reducing the spread of this disease is worth quite a lot both economically and socially.Continue Reading