Latest Posts
The business kiss
One of my earliest posts on this blog was about the business kiss. When is the right time to kiss in business? We had a long discussion about this at work the other day; probably because we were at a combination farewell and Christmas dinner – both events guaranteed toContinue Reading
Extreme weather events – they’re not as extreme any more
As Sydney continues to be ringed by fire, it seems a good time to repost something I wrote about extreme weather events after the Black Saturday bushfires. I’m with Adam Bandt, now is the time to be talking about climate change, and its impact on the extremes of weather.Continue Reading
Actuaries’ crystal ball found wanting
Today there was a comment about actuaries in the Financial Review – in a much more prominent place than most actuaries achieve. The context was a downgrade to AMP profit expectations, but it has wider interest in that Chanticleer finds actuaries in the life insurance industry wanting: Actuaries have a wonderful reputationContinue Reading
When will Don Draper die?
Despite watching the first season, I’m not a big fan of Mad Men. One of my regular readers thought that was my feminism coming out, but I think it’s just the lack of likeable characters. Nevertheless, I have to share this estimate of Don Draper’s life expectancy. Hat tip to fellowContinue Reading
ICAAP and the Appointed Actuary
Last year, I was part of a panel discussion about ICAAP and the Appointed Actuary. It got such a good discussion that I’ve been asked to reprise it at this year’s Actuaries Summit. But a few things have happened since then, notably: Companies have moved into the new world ofContinue Reading
Miss Warren’s profession
I went to see Mrs Warren’s Profession, by George Bernard Shaw, at the Sydney Theatre Company this week. A very enjoyable evening, but of more interest to the readers of this blog is Miss Warren’s profession: ‘I shall set up chambers in the City, and work at actuarial calculations. Last MayContinue Reading
Book Review: The Signal and the Noise, by Nate Silver
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t, by Nate Silver. Nate Silver is now an election blogger for the New York Times, but started out doing baseball statistics in his spare time while working for KPMG. That became PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and careerContinue Reading
The efficient frontier of shoes
In financial economics, there is a concept called the efficient frontier of investing. You can combine a portfolio of shares and other investments in many ways. In theory, there is one line which consists of the intersection of the best return for each level of risk (or alternatively, theContinue Reading
US Social Security Actuaries – great putdown
Via Paul Krugman, I read the most polite putdown from an actuary I’ve seen for a while. In an op-ed in the NY Times, Gary King and Somar Soneji alleged that Social Security projections understate life expectancy and are therefore far too optimistic: We reached these conclusions, and presented them in an article inContinue Reading
Extreme weather – it doesn’t take much warming to make the extremes much more likely
I’m in New Zealand right now, in the middle of pouring rain. But I’m enough of an Australian, and an insurance professional, that I can’t help reading everything my very slow internet connection will let me read about the bushfires. I’m so relieved that despite needing that “Catastrophic” rating forContinue Reading