Covid19 Reflections #2

Today’s Insight

Something that I find somewhat cheering in all the news is that here in Australia, we seem to be doing quite well on testing. The graph below, from our world in data (currently my favourite overall source) shows that we are high on the list of total tests conducted by country (the left hand axis), with over 100,000 tests conducted. And our position above the main slope of the line shows that the rate of positives is lower than average (as you would hope if we are testing above average). The specific numbers (at 20 March) were 709  positive cases (21 March) and 113,615 tests, which is a rate of only 0.6% positive. Testing is being prioritised for those most at risk here in Australia, so this low positive rate seems good news to me.

Best Links

One of my readers sent me through these two videos – some great communication to watch for understanding what is happening and what we as a country should do next and also how to communicate!

I’m no epidemiologist and no public health expert. I do believe passionately in science and also in #Factfulness. This man is the global authority on the spread of disease. If you are a leader (in any capacity) watch this. If you are not, watch it too. pic.twitter.com/q0P3xaOVuS

— Conall McDevitt (@ConallMcD) March 14, 2020

https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/what-did-singapore-and-hong-kong-do-to-control/12065046

This one is from the ABC, not sure how to embed it, but the link is here.

Thanks Ian.

And this link comes with a health warning – it is sobering. Read it when you are ready. It is the Imperial College London’s 20 page modelling of various different “non pharmaceutical measures” – eg social distancing, closing schools etc) and what the resulting impacts are of levels of infection, deaths, impact on the UK health system. While none of the numbers should be a surprise to any actuary who has been multiplying death rates by population in their heads, it is still sobering to see them on a page.

Life glimpses

In my daily walk yesterday, the cafés I walked past were using the outdoor tables to pretty much ignore the distancing rules. Different set of cafés today appeared to have made some kind of an effort with table/chair placement, but still all chairs were full.  I feel relieved that the NSW government appears to be about to shut them down.

As a family, we used to shop for groceries at least once a day, sometimes more (we live 200m walk from our nearest supermarket). While we have built up our supplies, this is the first day we will manage not to shop since we started talking about changing our habits a few weeks ago. Hoping we can get to once a week soon, but it is hard as we only got to about 4 days worth of supplies before the shelves started emptying. I suspect at least some of the “hoarding behaviour – shelves emptying” was due to people like us – if everyone suddenly buys seven days of groceries rather than one, there isn’t much left on the shelves at the end of the first few days.

Bit of Beauty

I went for a bike ride yesterday (probably the best form of transport in these circumstances – the rules are you have to stay at least 1m away from others!) and was pleased to see that Darling Harbour was pretty empty. Not quite as pretty as Chowder Bay, but it was a lovely day in Sydney to be out in the fresh air.