Statistics (Page 4)

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In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

Australia has had very little Covid19 compared with the rest of the world, due to very strict border controls and lockdowns. But with the rest of the world opening up as their populations are increasingly vaccinated, how does Australia do the same? I look at some initial modelling from the Burnet Institute.  My key takeaways? The better the vaccine efficacy (particularly against any form of infection and transmission) the more we can open up without serious Covid19 disease. And waiting until a reasonable proportion of the population is vaccinated (say 40%) makes a real difference to the incidence of severe disease and death.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

I wanted to do some interesting analysis of who is getting vaccinated in Australia, in the different categories, now that more than 4 million doses have been delivered. But I can’t. Why not? Because unlike every other rich country I have randomly googled, very little data is publicly available. So instead, I’ve looked at what data other countries have been tracking, and why it would help our rollout.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Feature, Statistics

How do we balance the risks of vaccines and the benefits of our population being vaccinated? How do we balance the individual risks and benefits and the collective risks and benefits?

My view is that we should be asking people to take remote individual risks (such as vaccination complications) for the collective benefit (ultimately population immunity against Covid19). And we need to have this conversation as a society as population immunity becomes closer.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

Just how effective is the Astra Zeneca vaccine? Better than a flu vaccine, but not as good as Pfizer or Moderna. The Australian government is quoting efficacy of 82%, which is the results of a subset of the clinical trial results – what happens with two standard doses, at least 12 weeks apart. Because it’s only a subset of the full clinical trial, the range of possible outcomes around that 82% is quite wide – 63% to  92%.  I would take it if it was offered to me.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not. When elderly people are vaccinated, sadly some of them die quite soon afterwards, probably coincidentally. This has happened at the beginning of the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine in Norway, and there will probably be more reportsContinue Reading

Blue jelly fish on the beach

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In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading