Statistics (Page 4)

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In: Covid19, Feature, Statistics

How do we balance the risks of vaccines and the benefits of our population being vaccinated? How do we balance the individual risks and benefits and the collective risks and benefits?

My view is that we should be asking people to take remote individual risks (such as vaccination complications) for the collective benefit (ultimately population immunity against Covid19). And we need to have this conversation as a society as population immunity becomes closer.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

Just how effective is the Astra Zeneca vaccine? Better than a flu vaccine, but not as good as Pfizer or Moderna. The Australian government is quoting efficacy of 82%, which is the results of a subset of the clinical trial results – what happens with two standard doses, at least 12 weeks apart. Because it’s only a subset of the full clinical trial, the range of possible outcomes around that 82% is quite wide – 63% to  92%.  I would take it if it was offered to me.Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not. When elderly people are vaccinated, sadly some of them die quite soon afterwards, probably coincidentally. This has happened at the beginning of the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine in Norway, and there will probably be more reportsContinue Reading

Blue jelly fish on the beach

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In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading

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In: Covid19, Statistics

This week everyone in Australia is celebrating Victoria’s success in smashing its second wave of Covid19. So how does Victoria’s experience compare with the rest of the world’s? Extraordinarily well. I’ve looked at every country in Our World in Data. And there are plenty that have managed to reduce a second wave of Covid19 to half or a third its original size. But most of those have had the virus come roaring back again even worse – once restrictions are eased again.Continue Reading