Insight While the risk of my choir going back to meeting is not very risky for us as thirty individuals, the risk of all choirs in NSW singing without restrictions is much bigger. I don’t think our choir should be singing together just yet. Cases in Australia have been bumpingContinue Reading
Insight If we can’t maintain social distancing in the transport system, compulsory masks (even cloth ones) in lifts, buses and trains would materially reduce the risk of virus transmission. As Australia continues to open up, we’ve realised that social distancing is close to impossible in some pretty crucial parts ofContinue Reading
Insight While new Covid19 cases in Australia are staying at the low levels from the end of April, and the proportion of positive tests is reducing, we are still likely only testing under half of the symptomatic people in the community. I’ve posted before about flutracking. It’s a weekly emailContinue Reading
Insight As countries start to measure how many people have had Covid19 and are (hopefully) immune, we are still a long way from herd immunity. Even in New York (which has the highest level of past infections at around 25% of the population), a second and third wave the sameContinue Reading
Insight – the Control Cycle As society gradually re-opens, the government has to make assumptions about the coronavirus. So we should describe what we expect up-front and then go about aggressively testing that expectation. We are effectively conduct a real-world experiment, along with everyone else in the world, about howContinue Reading
Insight New Zealand and Queensland have been the most successful of the big population states of Aust/NZ at flattening the curve, with both getting very close to no new cases on a daily basis. Victoria and Tasmania’s experience show how quickly a cluster can flare up into significant numbers ofContinue Reading
Vietnam’s response to the coronavirus has been very effective, but for some reason it doesn’t make the headlines the way Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand’s actions do.Continue Reading
Insight Increasingly, the best way to measure the toll of Covid19 around the world is not the reported deaths (such as from Our World in Data) but by looking at overall deaths in a population. As an example, the reported deaths to 27 April 2020 in the UK are 20,732,Continue Reading
Insight While the NSW School study of 18 pupils suggests that the risk of Covid19 spread from reopening schools is small, a much more comprehensive study of 661 students, teachers, parents and siblings from a school at the centre of the first outbreak of Covid19 in France suggests substantial spreadingContinue Reading
Insight Recent antibody testing in New York has added weight to my hypothesis that the infection fatality rate of Covid19 is around 1%. New York has done some random-ish population testing of antibodies to the Sars-Cov2. This New York Times article has the story. In New York City, about 21Continue Reading