Latest Posts
How effective are vaccines for herd immunity?
Here in Australia, Pfizer and Astra Zeneca have been approved and are being rolled out. So how effectively they will create herd immunity? Early indications are the Pfizer vaccine has a good chance of getting a population to herd immunity, but the Astra Zeneca vaccine, is far less likely to get us there.Continue Reading
How effective is the Astra Zeneca vaccine? Better than a flu vaccine, but not as good as Pfizer or Moderna
Just how effective is the Astra Zeneca vaccine? Better than a flu vaccine, but not as good as Pfizer or Moderna. The Australian government is quoting efficacy of 82%, which is the results of a subset of the clinical trial results – what happens with two standard doses, at least 12 weeks apart. Because it’s only a subset of the full clinical trial, the range of possible outcomes around that 82% is quite wide – 63% to 92%. I would take it if it was offered to me.Continue Reading
Some statistics for Invasion Day/Australia Day
As Australia has its annual debate about whether it is appropriate to have our national day on the anniversary of the day when a British naval officer planted the British flag, and claimed half a continent for Great Britain, ignoring the people who already lived here, I’m looking at someContinue Reading
Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not.
Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not. When elderly people are vaccinated, sadly some of them die quite soon afterwards, probably coincidentally. This has happened at the beginning of the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine in Norway, and there will probably be more reportsContinue Reading
Climate change and Risk Management – what should actuaries do?
How should actuaries advise their companies on climate change? Increasingly all financial institutions need to consider the impact of the risks associated with climate change on their core businesses. Even if they aren’t exposed to the physical risks of climate change (as general insurers are), other risks are increasing and need to be managed.Continue Reading
What did I read in 2020?
I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, so I hope you’ll find one you like. They’re not in any particular order.Continue Reading
New mutations of Sars-Cov2 are around 50% more infectious
New mutations of Sars-Cov2 are estimated to be around 50% more infectious, which makes suppressing spread of the virus 50% harder, and herd immunity harder to achieve with vaccination.Continue Reading
Rating NSW on the Swiss Cheese Pandemic defence scale
How does NSW stack up against the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence? Pretty well, but there are a few things (including mandatory facemasks) that we could do better. With Sydney in the midst of a new outbreak of Covid19 (for all my northern hemisphere readers, you’ll probably wish forContinue Reading
What proportion of Sars Cov2 cases are asymptomatic? NSW Health data provides some insights
NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading
Vaccine trial results – how good are they? Really good.
Two vaccines – Pfizer and Moderna – have now announced the preliminary results of their Phase III trials. And it’s very good news – the results are very strong, and supported by enough data that they are almost certainly more than 90% effective (VE – vaccine efficacy), with their bestContinue Reading