Six weeks ago, I posted about the Coronavirus in China:

If you are unlucky enough to live in Wuhan, China, and have been in quarantine for weeks, the experience of the Novel Coronavirus is starting to resemble the experience of the Spanish flu in 1918.
It is too early to say how seriously the Novel Coronavirus will impact the globe, but with the news today that the number of deaths has exceeded the SARS deaths in 2003, it is clearly very serious for China.

Reading that blogpost now seems like reading something I wrote years ago. Since then, I’ve been reading obsessively and contributed a bit in the background to some of the Actuaries Institute material, and we now have more than 1,000 cases in Australia (there were 15 when I wrote the original blog post).

 

I’ve realised that for my own mental health, I’m going to have to do something different. So my aim is to:

  • limit my time reading about what is going on
  • find some way to be productive with at least part of my reading.

So I’m going to use this blog for the productive part. I’m going to post most days with four sections:

  • Some interesting insight, statistical or otherwise about Covid19
  • Interesting links from today’s reading
  • A glimpse into life today (inspired by Laura at 11d who is writing a post most days from isolation near New York city).
  • A bit of beauty

Let me know if you have any feedback, or comment on each of the sections, it’s a bit of an experiment.

Today’s insight

Like every insight, this one seems obvious once pointed out. In a time of exponential growth, such as is happening with Covid19, the most important statistic is the rate of change. The World in Data Covid19  information is tracking the doubling rate of cases of Covid19 and deaths from Covid19. The calculation of the number of cases of Covid19 depends on testing rates (which have been varying by time and by country) and even with perfect testing, capture an event that happened 4 days to 2 weeks before the positive test. And while it is likely that the numbers of deaths are capturing almost all the deaths caused by Covid19, those people were infected with the disease 2-8 weeks before they died.

But with those caveats, the rate of increase of cases and deaths is the best way to determine the level of control or otherwise over Covid19. In South Korea, cases are doubling in 18 days. In the US, cases are doubling in 2 days. How are we doing in Australia? Our cases are doubling in 3-4 days right now. Let’s hope that the changes that have happened in recent days (such as compulsory isolation on entry to Australia, increased social distancing) will reduce the doubling rate here.

Best Link

Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia

Today’s link is my favourite Australian statistical resource on Covid 19 – Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. It has lots of really useful graphs, some people making a huge effort to keep up to date with statistics across Australia, and great ways of thinking about how best to make sense of the data.

Life glimpse

  • Six weeks ago, I had 6 different trips booked out of Sydney to other parts of Australia or overseas. Today, I only have one left – which is the Olympics in Japan in late July – I give it a week tops before that is cancelled too.
  • Twelve days ago, I was on a panel presenting to about 70 people.
  • Ten days ago, I went to an industry cocktail party. The company had had a serious conversation about whether to cancel it, but decided that would probably be being too cautious, given it was only 90 people in a large space. I think it will be a while before I’m in a room with that many people again.
  • My Tuesday morning meeting (which I was planning to fly to Melbourne for) was converted to a video conference, and I was in a room with two other people.
  • My coffee meetings this week were both by zoom  video conference.

Bit of Beauty

As I tweeted yesterday, we could all do with a bit more beauty in the world. So I’m going to post a bit of beauty every time I post here.

Today’s picture comes from Chowder Bay where I went for a quick swim yesterday – not as busy as Bondi beach.

9 Comments

  1. Interesting. A lot of the people we see in the medical centre who are feeling unwell and have a history and symptoms that indicate they should be swabbed are terrified. I remind them that there are many, many people who have already recovered from Covid19. It is usually scant consolation to them. The medical profession is working long hours and it is depressing to have a few hours off to get life admin done and find the supermarket shelves bare!

  2. Thank you Jennifer.

  3. Congratulations on a really good idea carried out well

  4. Thanks Jennifer I have appreciated your blog and the information presented.
    I think the rate of change in all things is really hard to process and I think I am a pretty flexible person! It is really challenging to look beyond the next week or two and plan anything.
    I am sure we will all look back at this as a very odd moment in history and try to remember what we were actually going through. I suggest writing a journal or a blog ! Much of what we are facing impact us each in a unique way but over time it is lost if we do it write it down. I still have vivid memories of the 11th of September when the twin towers came down. It was a jarring halt to our world and yet that event was so far away. It was only a few images, it’s only when I read through my diaries do I really realise what it felt like.
    This event has a bigger impact because it is really in our back yard / front yard and all places in between. Bombs can’t stop it, armies can’t go after the bad guys, it’s quite interesting to see how counties/communities have had to find something they recently seemed to lack- leadership and common decency. But humanity will overcome this because there are still millions of smart decent people who are getting on with it. Your blog is part of that process – work with the facts – fix what you can and manage the rest as best you can!
    Thanks Jennifer for helping provide the important information to us so we can understand the evolution of this event a little better so we can plan as best we can. Onward and upward!

  5. Hi Jennifer
    Great initiative. I have also been following the link Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia – it is a great resource for actual data presented well. I am trying not to read too much about the rest of it. However, seeing what is happening in France, Italy and the US, I am concerned that we have not learnt nearly enough soon enough. Centennial Park was full yesterday, I did not get out of the car, but went straight home. Sydney will be bad!
    Like the idea of something beautiful. Good start today!

    Cheers
    Brian

  6. Jennifer… thanks for your very thoughtful post…

  7. Author

    Thanks everyone for your comments and thanks. I’m glad you all like the bit of beauty – it’s a thought that has helped me through tough times in the past. And do feel free to send me suggestions of what to talk about each day.

  8. Thanks Jennifer for your thoughts as always. For me, it is hard to stop reading all the live blog news updates as the story moves so quickly – however, I agree that reading less about the virus and doing more productive things is where I am heading. I also sat down and did 2 hours of French teaching with my daughter which gave me a really warm feeling to try and help her catch up to the others in her new bilingual school. Nice to find these small moments of joy in the tough current environment.
    Good luck.

  9. Beautifully flowed post. Appreciate your time and thoughts to share, Jennifer.

    It helped to boost my spirit just now, from some dreadful news that I heard from a friend- some illegal immigrates are suffering from Cov-19 at home as they are too scared to go hospital; not scared of catching the virus in hospital, but more so, scared that they will be deported back to their home country after being cured in the hospital….

    Sad, isn’t it? At the beginning of this virus, I thought to myself, why did I become an actuary, not a doctor, then I could be helping to work around the clock to develop an vaccine now. Later, I thought to myself, why aren’t I a politician?

    Anyway, would be keen to hear your journey of thoughts on what you wish you could do more of.

    And thanks! For the tip/reassurance on reading less on Cov-19. I started that 1 week ago. Found it helpful.

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