Covid19 Reflections #13

Today’s insight

As we’ve watched around the world, the most dramatic indication of the impact of Covid19 has been the stories coming out of intensive care units – health professionals in Wuhan, Lombardy, Madrid and now New York are making heartbreaking decisions because there just aren’t enough ICU beds for all the very very sick people coming into their hospitals.

So how is Australia looking?

Right now, we have 75 people in intensive care beds around Australia, out of a total of just over 2,200 ICU beds. Assuming roughly the current growth rate of total cases in Australia  (that’s 10%), we will run out of beds in mid May. If the need for ICU beds grows at 20% per day (which was the growth rate a week ago), we’ll run out in three weeks – before Anzac Day.  And of course that assumes that the only use for an ICU bed is a Covid19 case.

This article tells us that there are just over 2,200 ICU beds in Australia. And this site has been tracking how many Covid19 cases are in ICUs around Australia. Interestingly right now, WA has the greatest proportion of their beds occupied.

My very crude exponential calculations above are just for illustration. The modelling that (for some reason) the government still isn’t releasing will have some more sophisticated ways of measuring this, including allowing for the effect of all the social distancing we are doing to reduce the spread. But in the meantime, here’s NZ’s modelling, to give you a flavour, which does show various scenarios for when their ICUs would be overwhelmed.

Bottom line, no matter which way you cut it, exponential growth is scary, and our current social distancing really needs to work. Right now, in the calm before the storm, it seems unreal to imagine we could get to the position of Italy, or Spain, or New York, but without flattening the curve, it will happen. We have the advantage of time, and we need to use that time well to stop the spreading of Covid19.

Today’s Link

If you follow US politics, you probably know the site fivethirtyeight. They’ve got a great article up explaining why modelling Covid19 is so hard. tl;dr – it is basically impossible to get good parameters, so the range of possibilities is enormous. It doesn’t stop epidemiologists from having a good go (as the assumptions can inform policy), but it does mean that 538 is not making their own; they are reporting on what is out there. But their diagrams of how it works are lovely, which is why I’ve shown you one here.

Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless.

“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir [a director of Ohio State University’s ecology, epidemiology and population health program] said.

Life Glimpses

As we start trying to figure out our routine in lockdown, we’ve tried a couple of things in the last 24 hours to support local businesses. First, we ordered a meal from Barrel Bar and Dining, a local restaurant and wine bar that we’ve been to a few times. It was roast lamb with salad and roast vegetables and just required reheating and assembly. Delicious! If you’re local, try it out.

And I tried out the new facebook live exercise group from my local running training group. They normally do running and group exercise in local parks, and they’ve moved themselves quite seamlessly into virtual mode, with their same revenue model. It was more effective than I expected. Even though there was no-one watching, I did it all without slacking off (much). And bonus, because everyone is home now, they have lunchtime sessions, rather than early morning and evening.

Bit of Beauty

It’s been raining off and on today, so while I’ve been out for a walk, today’s bit of beauty is from yesterday’s walk.