Jennifer Lang (Page 6)

How has Victoria’s crushing of its second Covid19 wave compared with others around the world? Extraordinarily well

On: October 27, 2020

This week everyone in Australia is celebrating Victoria’s success in smashing its second wave of Covid19. So how does Victoria’s experience compare with the rest of the world’s? Extraordinarily well. I’ve looked at every country in Our World in Data. And there are plenty that have managed to reduce a second wave of Covid19 to half or a third its original size. But most of those have had the virus come roaring back again even worse – once restrictions are eased again.Continue Reading

Check out the pandemic in Australia’s neighbourhood, the world can learn something

On: October 18, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics

Europe is having a second wave of Covid19. But what can we learn from our neighbours in East Asia? Quite a lot, we should pay more attention to them. The world is full of tough news about a second wave of Covid, particularly in Europe. But I thought it wasContinue Reading

How risky is singing compared with talking for covid19 transmission? Only slightly riskier

On: October 8, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics

Today I’m looking in depth at singing – how risky is it, and how does it compare with other activities? It seems to be slightly more risky than speaking at the same volume, but a much more important question is how well ventilated the space is, whether you are speakingContinue Reading

Has anywhere in the world reached herd immunity? Possibly, but at terrible cost

On: October 1, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics

Has anywhere in the world reached herd immunity? Some communities may have, but at terrible cost. Today I’m looking the level of population (or herd) immunity around the world. Early on in the pandemic, there was a talking point, which is creeping back occasionally, that we should just stand back,Continue Reading

Book Review: two hopeful books in this time of crisis

On: September 25, 2020

In: Book Reviews

In this time of worldwide pandemic, it seems easy to be quite negative about human nature. Especially when watching just about anything on the news at the moment. But the reason these stories are news is that most people aren’t like that. So today I’m reviewing two very hopeful booksContinue Reading

A review of the recent study of undetected Australian Covid19 cases. Not much new information

On: September 21, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics, Work and life

Did more than 60,000 cases of Covid19 go undetected in Australia before the second wave in Victoria? It’s possible. But I don’t think the new widely-reported study adds any strong evidence for it. You’ve probably seen reporting of this (not yet peer reviewed) study, suggesting that perhaps 60,000 people in AustraliaContinue Reading

What does contact tracing tell us about transmission of Covid19?

On: September 13, 2020

In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

In NSW, after the home, the most likely place for transmission of Covid19 is a café or restaurant. NSW publishes a weekly report on the Covid19 pandemic – you can read them all here. Since 1 July they have been reporting on their analysis of each of the clusters inContinue Reading

Lockdowns seem to help the economy compared with the alternative – Covid19 Reflections #49

On: September 5, 2020

In: Covid19, Economics, Statistics

There is increasing evidence that in a pandemic, public health measures (including lockdowns) help the economy compared with the alternative of not locking down – countries which reduced deaths from Covid19 also had better economic (GDP) outcomes in the quarter ending June 2020. Increasingly, studies are looking at the linksContinue Reading

Death rates in Australia – what do they tell us about Covid19?

On: August 23, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics

Total death rates in Australia up until the end of May are lower than recent averages. But there was a peak of deaths in late March and early April, which seems to have been a bigger peak than the reported Covid19 deaths (which peaked in the same weeks). In myContinue Reading

How much worse is Covid19 for older people in Victoria? Reflections #47

On: August 17, 2020

In: Covid19, Statistics

In Victoria, if you are over the age of 85, you are around three times more likely than the average person to have tested positive for Covid19. I’ve been following the Royal Commission into Aged Care quite closely as it examines some quite horrendous stories about the experience of manyContinue Reading