In many countries, population mortality statistics have revealed a much worse Covid 19 epidemic than is being shown by the case and official death statistics. Australian statistics have not been released for 2020 until this week (with data up to the end of March). They suggest that it is possibleContinue Reading
In the USA, cases are increasing again, but deaths from COVID19 are still falling from the April peak. The US is now identifying more mild cases, but the recent increase in cases is almost certain to lead to more deaths per day in a the next few weeks. It’s beenContinue Reading
In Australia, it is now overwhelmingly likely that community transmission has disappeared from WA, Tasmania, SA, Northern Territory. Queensland is coming close to that point, but Victoria and NSW are still the laggards based on cases on 13 June. In Australia, we are now in the fortunate position of havingContinue Reading
Insight NSW Health’s latest report confirms that there don’t seem to have been any unidentified Covid19 deaths (unlike many other countries), based on how many deaths in total there have been in NSW so far this year. I took that statistic from NSW Health’s weekly report on all things CovidContinue Reading
Insight While the risk of my choir going back to meeting is not very risky for us as thirty individuals, the risk of all choirs in NSW singing without restrictions is much bigger. I don’t think our choir should be singing together just yet. Cases in Australia have been bumpingContinue Reading
Insight If we can’t maintain social distancing in the transport system, compulsory masks (even cloth ones) in lifts, buses and trains would materially reduce the risk of virus transmission. As Australia continues to open up, we’ve realised that social distancing is close to impossible in some pretty crucial parts ofContinue Reading
Insight While new Covid19 cases in Australia are staying at the low levels from the end of April, and the proportion of positive tests is reducing, we are still likely only testing under half of the symptomatic people in the community. I’ve posted before about flutracking. It’s a weekly emailContinue Reading
Insight As countries start to measure how many people have had Covid19 and are (hopefully) immune, we are still a long way from herd immunity. Even in New York (which has the highest level of past infections at around 25% of the population), a second and third wave the sameContinue Reading
Insight – the Control Cycle As society gradually re-opens, the government has to make assumptions about the coronavirus. So we should describe what we expect up-front and then go about aggressively testing that expectation. We are effectively conduct a real-world experiment, along with everyone else in the world, about howContinue Reading
Insight New Zealand and Queensland have been the most successful of the big population states of Aust/NZ at flattening the curve, with both getting very close to no new cases on a daily basis. Victoria and Tasmania’s experience show how quickly a cluster can flare up into significant numbers ofContinue Reading