Today’s Insight I’m working with a group of actuaries to put some numbers around possible scenarios for deaths in Australia. There are a lot of people cavalierly talking about this being an “old person’s disease”. But the information available so far (based on what has happened in China and Italy)Continue Reading
Today’s Insight/Link Today’s link and insight (I’m combining the two in one today) is a new study from Sydney University about social distancing. It uses an existing model that was built to model pandemic influenza, and concludes that 80% of the population needs to practice strict social distancing for fourContinue Reading
Today’s Insight In my first Covid reflections, I mentioned the difference in timing between infection, being infectious, having symptoms, testing positive, and recovery, or serious illness and/or death. I said that a positive test captures an event (the infection with Covid19) that happened between 4 days and 2 weeks beforeContinue Reading
Today’s Insight Several people have asked me about how we should compare ourselves to Italy. There are quite a few ways, and I’m going to go through them. Yesterday (22 March) the number of confirmed cases in Australia was 1,363. In Italy, the point where that number was reached wasContinue Reading
Today’s Insight Something that I find somewhat cheering in all the news is that here in Australia, we seem to be doing quite well on testing. The graph below, from our world in data (currently my favourite overall source) shows that we are high on the list of total testsContinue Reading
Six weeks ago, I posted about the Coronavirus in China. Reading that blogpost now seems like reading something I wrote years ago. Since then, I’ve been reading obsessively and contributed a bit in the background to some of the Actuaries Institute material, and we now have more than 1,000 cases in Australia (there were 15 when I wrote the original blog post). This post is the start of my series of posts on the Coronavirus from an actuarial perspective.Continue Reading
The shocking murder of a woman and her three children by her ex-husband (and the children’s father) in Queensland this week has led to a lot of discussion of the statistics of family violence. The statistic I want to look at today is the deaths of children. The Drum onContinue Reading
Last week was the annual release of the Closing the Gap report. As the report describes: In 2007, Commonwealth, state, territory and local governments made a commitment to work together to close the gap in Indigenous disadvantage. This led to the National Indigenous Reform Agreement, a significant step toward moreContinue Reading
Sitting in a meeting of my industry peers this week, I did what I often did, and tried to count the proportion of women in the room. Luckily, for a change, I wasn’t the only woman. There were three of us out of 20! So I calculated the minimum numberContinue Reading
Read this book, and if you have any influence over data; its collection or its use; think honestly about whether you are considering women as much as men in the way you collect your data. And remember that the more often decision makers reflect the general population (whether by gender or other measures of diversity) the more likely it is that decisions will be good for that diverse population.Continue Reading