Latest Posts
Rating NSW on the Swiss Cheese Pandemic defence scale
How does NSW stack up against the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence? Pretty well, but there are a few things (including mandatory facemasks) that we could do better. With Sydney in the midst of a new outbreak of Covid19 (for all my northern hemisphere readers, you’ll probably wish forContinue Reading
What proportion of Sars Cov2 cases are asymptomatic? NSW Health data provides some insights
NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading
Vaccine trial results – how good are they? Really good.
Two vaccines – Pfizer and Moderna – have now announced the preliminary results of their Phase III trials. And it’s very good news – the results are very strong, and supported by enough data that they are almost certainly more than 90% effective (VE – vaccine efficacy), with their bestContinue Reading
How has Victoria’s crushing of its second Covid19 wave compared with others around the world? Extraordinarily well
This week everyone in Australia is celebrating Victoria’s success in smashing its second wave of Covid19. So how does Victoria’s experience compare with the rest of the world’s? Extraordinarily well. I’ve looked at every country in Our World in Data. And there are plenty that have managed to reduce a second wave of Covid19 to half or a third its original size. But most of those have had the virus come roaring back again even worse – once restrictions are eased again.Continue Reading
Check out the pandemic in Australia’s neighbourhood, the world can learn something
Europe is having a second wave of Covid19. But what can we learn from our neighbours in East Asia? Quite a lot, we should pay more attention to them. The world is full of tough news about a second wave of Covid, particularly in Europe. But I thought it wasContinue Reading
How risky is singing compared with talking for covid19 transmission? Only slightly riskier
Today I’m looking in depth at singing – how risky is it, and how does it compare with other activities? It seems to be slightly more risky than speaking at the same volume, but a much more important question is how well ventilated the space is, whether you are speakingContinue Reading
Has anywhere in the world reached herd immunity? Possibly, but at terrible cost
Has anywhere in the world reached herd immunity? Some communities may have, but at terrible cost. Today I’m looking the level of population (or herd) immunity around the world. Early on in the pandemic, there was a talking point, which is creeping back occasionally, that we should just stand back,Continue Reading
Book Review: two hopeful books in this time of crisis
In this time of worldwide pandemic, it seems easy to be quite negative about human nature. Especially when watching just about anything on the news at the moment. But the reason these stories are news is that most people aren’t like that. So today I’m reviewing two very hopeful booksContinue Reading
A review of the recent study of undetected Australian Covid19 cases. Not much new information
Did more than 60,000 cases of Covid19 go undetected in Australia before the second wave in Victoria? It’s possible. But I don’t think the new widely-reported study adds any strong evidence for it. You’ve probably seen reporting of this (not yet peer reviewed) study, suggesting that perhaps 60,000 people in AustraliaContinue Reading
What does contact tracing tell us about transmission of Covid19?
In NSW, after the home, the most likely place for transmission of Covid19 is a café or restaurant. NSW publishes a weekly report on the Covid19 pandemic – you can read them all here. Since 1 July they have been reporting on their analysis of each of the clusters inContinue Reading