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Lockdowns seem to help the economy compared with the alternative – Covid19 Reflections #49
There is increasing evidence that in a pandemic, public health measures (including lockdowns) help the economy compared with the alternative of not locking down – countries which reduced deaths from Covid19 also had better economic (GDP) outcomes in the quarter ending June 2020. Increasingly, studies are looking at the linksContinue Reading
Death rates in Australia – what do they tell us about Covid19?
Total death rates in Australia up until the end of May are lower than recent averages. But there was a peak of deaths in late March and early April, which seems to have been a bigger peak than the reported Covid19 deaths (which peaked in the same weeks). In myContinue Reading
How much worse is Covid19 for older people in Victoria? Reflections #47
In Victoria, if you are over the age of 85, you are around three times more likely than the average person to have tested positive for Covid19. I’ve been following the Royal Commission into Aged Care quite closely as it examines some quite horrendous stories about the experience of manyContinue Reading
How effective have Victoria’s lockdowns been? Reflections #46
How effective have Victoria’s lockdowns been? The research shows that they’ve meant a reduction of between 9,000 and 37,000 Covid19 cases up to 31 July, so the lockdowns have probably saved between 100 and 500 lives that would have been lost without them. And that’s just so far. One veryContinue Reading
Can contact tracing reduce or remove the need for physical distancing? Reflections #45
Can contact tracing reduce or remove the need for physical distancing? Contact tracing, when done quickly and effectively, removes some transmission, but not all of it. And the more cases there are, particularly in an environment without much physical distancing, the more the chances of a superspreader that will causeContinue Reading
Update on death rates in Australia 2020 Reflections #44
The ABS has released Australian population mortality statistics up to 28 April. While there were a few more extra Covid19 deaths than counted in late March and early April, since then death rates in the population as a whole are largely lower than in previous years. The graph below showsContinue Reading
Are we getting better at treating Covid19? Reflections #43
Are we getting better at treating Covid19? At least in the UK, yes. Actuaries in the UK (bulletin 50 in the link) have analysed the data there and found a halving of the death rate for those admitted to hospital with Covid19. Their key result is in this graph (1).Continue Reading
Should we aim for elimination of Covid19? Reflections #42
While Australia’s case numbers are getting worse, increasingly public health commentators are asking whether we should aim for elimination of the virus when we get case numbers back under control, rather than opening up when numbers are low as we did last time. It is helpful to think of thisContinue Reading
When in an outbreak should public health measures start? Reflections #41
With the benefit of hindsight, I’ve looked at Victoria’s community transmission of Covid19 in the last six weeks. If this happened in NSW, how should we know when to take action earlier? And if so what action should we take? If we could rerun history, maybe a testing blitz aContinue Reading
Australia releases population mortality information Reflections #40
In many countries, population mortality statistics have revealed a much worse Covid 19 epidemic than is being shown by the case and official death statistics. Australian statistics have not been released for 2020 until this week (with data up to the end of March). They suggest that it is possibleContinue Reading