Latest Posts
Black Lives Matter – Australia’s statistics
As Australians rally across the country to protest against mistreatment and deaths of Indigenous people, inspired by the week of protests following the death of George Floyd in the US, I’m comparing the statistics in the two countries. It saddens me to find, as I expected (I’ve blogged about this before), that Indigenous people are treated overall much worse by the police and prisons in Australia’s judicial system than black Americans are by theirs.Continue Reading
Update on NSW Covid19 deaths Reflections #37
Insight NSW Health’s latest report confirms that there don’t seem to have been any unidentified Covid19 deaths (unlike many other countries), based on how many deaths in total there have been in NSW so far this year. I took that statistic from NSW Health’s weekly report on all things CovidContinue Reading
How risky is community transmission in NSW right now? Reflections #36
Insight While the risk of my choir going back to meeting is not very risky for us as thirty individuals, the risk of all choirs in NSW singing without restrictions is much bigger. I don’t think our choir should be singing together just yet. Cases in Australia have been bumpingContinue Reading
Should masks be compulsory on public transport? Reflections #35
Insight If we can’t maintain social distancing in the transport system, compulsory masks (even cloth ones) in lifts, buses and trains would materially reduce the risk of virus transmission. As Australia continues to open up, we’ve realised that social distancing is close to impossible in some pretty crucial parts ofContinue Reading
What proportion of people with Covid19 symptoms are being tested? Reflections #34
Insight While new Covid19 cases in Australia are staying at the low levels from the end of April, and the proportion of positive tests is reducing, we are still likely only testing under half of the symptomatic people in the community. I’ve posted before about flutracking. It’s a weekly emailContinue Reading
How close to herd immunity are different parts of the world? Reflections #33
Insight As countries start to measure how many people have had Covid19 and are (hopefully) immune, we are still a long way from herd immunity. Even in New York (which has the highest level of past infections at around 25% of the population), a second and third wave the sameContinue Reading
Using the Control Cycle to manage Covid19 Reflections #32
Insight – the Control Cycle As society gradually re-opens, the government has to make assumptions about the coronavirus. So we should describe what we expect up-front and then go about aggressively testing that expectation. We are effectively conduct a real-world experiment, along with everyone else in the world, about howContinue Reading
How successfully has the curve been flattened in Australia and NZ? Reflections #31
Insight New Zealand and Queensland have been the most successful of the big population states of Aust/NZ at flattening the curve, with both getting very close to no new cases on a daily basis. Victoria and Tasmania’s experience show how quickly a cluster can flare up into significant numbers ofContinue Reading
Spotlight on Vietnam and Covid19 Reflections #30
Vietnam’s response to the coronavirus has been very effective, but for some reason it doesn’t make the headlines the way Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand’s actions do.Continue Reading
Reporting on excess deaths from Covid19 around the world Reflections #29
Insight Increasingly, the best way to measure the toll of Covid19 around the world is not the reported deaths (such as from Our World in Data) but by looking at overall deaths in a population. As an example, the reported deaths to 27 April 2020 in the UK are 20,732,Continue Reading