Latest Posts
Why are deaths in the US not rising as fast as Covid19 cases? Reflections #39
In the USA, cases are increasing again, but deaths from COVID19 are still falling from the April peak. The US is now identifying more mild cases, but the recent increase in cases is almost certain to lead to more deaths per day in a the next few weeks. It’s beenContinue Reading
Black Lives Matter: Why are Indigenous people more likely to be in custody in Australia?
This week, I’ve been looking for evidence that the Australian justice system is racist against Aboriginal people. Given Indigenous people are locked up at 11 times the rate of non Indigenous people, racism seems likely to be at least some of the reason. Where statistics exist (and I’ve found some),Continue Reading
How likely is it that Covid19 has been eliminated from Australia’s smaller states? Reflections #38
In Australia, it is now overwhelmingly likely that community transmission has disappeared from WA, Tasmania, SA, Northern Territory. Queensland is coming close to that point, but Victoria and NSW are still the laggards based on cases on 13 June. In Australia, we are now in the fortunate position of havingContinue Reading
Black Lives Matter – Australia’s statistics
As Australians rally across the country to protest against mistreatment and deaths of Indigenous people, inspired by the week of protests following the death of George Floyd in the US, I’m comparing the statistics in the two countries. It saddens me to find, as I expected (I’ve blogged about this before), that Indigenous people are treated overall much worse by the police and prisons in Australia’s judicial system than black Americans are by theirs.Continue Reading
Update on NSW Covid19 deaths Reflections #37
Insight NSW Health’s latest report confirms that there don’t seem to have been any unidentified Covid19 deaths (unlike many other countries), based on how many deaths in total there have been in NSW so far this year. I took that statistic from NSW Health’s weekly report on all things CovidContinue Reading
How risky is community transmission in NSW right now? Reflections #36
Insight While the risk of my choir going back to meeting is not very risky for us as thirty individuals, the risk of all choirs in NSW singing without restrictions is much bigger. I don’t think our choir should be singing together just yet. Cases in Australia have been bumpingContinue Reading
Should masks be compulsory on public transport? Reflections #35
Insight If we can’t maintain social distancing in the transport system, compulsory masks (even cloth ones) in lifts, buses and trains would materially reduce the risk of virus transmission. As Australia continues to open up, we’ve realised that social distancing is close to impossible in some pretty crucial parts ofContinue Reading
What proportion of people with Covid19 symptoms are being tested? Reflections #34
Insight While new Covid19 cases in Australia are staying at the low levels from the end of April, and the proportion of positive tests is reducing, we are still likely only testing under half of the symptomatic people in the community. I’ve posted before about flutracking. It’s a weekly emailContinue Reading
How close to herd immunity are different parts of the world? Reflections #33
Insight As countries start to measure how many people have had Covid19 and are (hopefully) immune, we are still a long way from herd immunity. Even in New York (which has the highest level of past infections at around 25% of the population), a second and third wave the sameContinue Reading
Using the Control Cycle to manage Covid19 Reflections #32
Insight – the Control Cycle As society gradually re-opens, the government has to make assumptions about the coronavirus. So we should describe what we expect up-front and then go about aggressively testing that expectation. We are effectively conduct a real-world experiment, along with everyone else in the world, about howContinue Reading