Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not. When elderly people are vaccinated, sadly some of them die quite soon afterwards, probably coincidentally. This has happened at the beginning of the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine in Norway, and there will probably be more reportsContinue Reading
New mutations of Sars-Cov2 are estimated to be around 50% more infectious, which makes suppressing spread of the virus 50% harder, and herd immunity harder to achieve with vaccination.Continue Reading
How does NSW stack up against the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence? Pretty well, but there are a few things (including mandatory facemasks) that we could do better. With Sydney in the midst of a new outbreak of Covid19 (for all my northern hemisphere readers, you’ll probably wish forContinue Reading
NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading
Two vaccines – Pfizer and Moderna – have now announced the preliminary results of their Phase III trials. And it’s very good news – the results are very strong, and supported by enough data that they are almost certainly more than 90% effective (VE – vaccine efficacy), with their bestContinue Reading
This week everyone in Australia is celebrating Victoria’s success in smashing its second wave of Covid19. So how does Victoria’s experience compare with the rest of the world’s? Extraordinarily well. I’ve looked at every country in Our World in Data. And there are plenty that have managed to reduce a second wave of Covid19 to half or a third its original size. But most of those have had the virus come roaring back again even worse – once restrictions are eased again.Continue Reading
Europe is having a second wave of Covid19. But what can we learn from our neighbours in East Asia? Quite a lot, we should pay more attention to them. The world is full of tough news about a second wave of Covid, particularly in Europe. But I thought it wasContinue Reading
Today I’m looking in depth at singing – how risky is it, and how does it compare with other activities? It seems to be slightly more risky than speaking at the same volume, but a much more important question is how well ventilated the space is, whether you are speakingContinue Reading
Has anywhere in the world reached herd immunity? Some communities may have, but at terrible cost. Today I’m looking the level of population (or herd) immunity around the world. Early on in the pandemic, there was a talking point, which is creeping back occasionally, that we should just stand back,Continue Reading
Did more than 60,000 cases of Covid19 go undetected in Australia before the second wave in Victoria? It’s possible. But I don’t think the new widely-reported study adds any strong evidence for it. You’ve probably seen reporting of this (not yet peer reviewed) study, suggesting that perhaps 60,000 people in AustraliaContinue Reading