How does Australia’s 2021 Covid19 wave compare to Winter 2020?

How does Australia’s 2021 Covid19 wave compare to 2020? So far, cases are around three times higher and deaths are around a third of last year.

Today’s analysis is a quick graph. I’ve seen this graph from lots of other countries, but now here in Australia our latest wave is big enough to categorically show that vaccination has made a difference compared with the Victorian wave last year. As you can see, in 2020, deaths lagged cases by around 2-3 weeks. This year, the death rates compared with numbers of cases is substantially lower, and the rate also looks as if it is slightly improving.

In NSW, we keep hearing that while cases are going to continue to increase (particularly after removing some restrictions) hospitalisation and death rates are going to come down. Its very hard to find good information about hospitalisation rates (as the information provided by NSW Health is very summarised) but once the wave has been going a while, sadly deaths start to occur. It is very good to see that the death rates compared with cases have not been as high as they were in 2020.

I’ll continue to look at the hospitalisation statistics to see whether there is a robust conclusion I can draw (without using my prejudices to take over the analysis).

Links

In Australia the discussion about opening up continues to be about the right balance between economic life and health. John Quiggin makes an interesting point here, that rather than looking at flu deaths or road deaths to work out what is acceptable, what if we looked at our response to Covid and our gradual improvements in road deaths and learned from that to respond to influenza?

But is the problem that we are too unwilling to accept deaths from Covid, or that we have been too willing to accept deaths from other causes? Back in the 1960s and 1970s, when our population was around half its current size, more than 3000 people died every year on Australian roads. After a long series of interventions, beginning with seatbelt laws in Victoria, the annual number of deaths has fallen to around 1000, despite a significant rise in population. The likelihood of dying on the roads today is about one-sixth what it was fifty years ago.

With those examples in mind, let’s go back to influenza…

There’s every reason to think we could permanently suppress seasonal influenza without recourse to drastic measures like lockdowns. The first step would be to mandate flu vaccination wherever Covid vaccination is required (for international arrivals and high-contact workers, and as part of any vaccine passport scheme). Next, we would introduce a continuing campaign to ensure that adults don’t go to work with flu and that sick children (major spreaders of flu) stay home from school. That will only be feasible with more comprehensive sick leave, including carer’s leave.

There are increasingly stories about supply chain disruption. This story summarises the issues coming from Asia – the factory of much of the planet – as Covid19 surges through South East Asia.

The drop in manufacturing capacity, particularly in countries like Thailand and Vietnam, has affected the global value chains. Many companies sourcing goods from the region say they have faced unprecedented disruptions this year due to COVID outbreaks and container shortages.

“Given Vietnam’s increased role in global manufacturing supply chains, notably in the final assembly stage of electronics, in recent years, the surge in infections is being felt in telecommunication-related goods,” Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at Oxford Economics, told DW…

…To avoid disruptions to production, Vietnamese authorities have been allowing factories to remain open if they adopt strict containment measures, including offering on-site accommodation or direct transport for employees to avoid catching and spreading the virus.

Despite the leeway, Fenner said, many factories “have been forced to close, in part, due to the costs associated with providing adequate accommodation.” Unable to bear the isolation and spend all the time at the workplace, some workers also quit and leave for home.

Life glimpses

Since my last post, fully vaccinated people in parts of Sydney are allowed to have picnics of up to five people. And this Sunday was a glorious spring day in Sydney. So on my bike ride around the parks of Sydney within 5K of my house every single park looked like the designers drawings must have looked at the beginning – people picnicking on the grass, kids on their scooters, bikes big and small… It was lovely to see all of our parks getting so much use. I really do hope that many of us keep using our parks now that we’ve got into the habit. It is so lovely to see so many people enjoying the outside.

This week I also got my final travel refund from all the bookings I had in February last year – the Tokyo Olympics. I’ve been following the controversies around the world from the different packaging agents (each country gives the rights to one travel agent) and I think I did quite well choosing New Zealand. They carefully calculated the total refund received from all their suppliers, subtracted their costs, got the whole lot audited and then refunded the balance. I received just under 75% which was not too bad.  It’s got me searching the internet for places overseas I could go with that money… it could be a while though. Right now I would be content with the south coast of NSW.

Bit of beauty

This came from one of our local bushwalks. Apparently it is a Dimorphotheca Ecklonis – or African daisy. Around here, they are more often pink or purple, but this one is quite a lovely white.