What do we know about the risks of Long Covid? A closer look at Long Covid, what we know about how risky it is, and how serious it is. It can be very serious, enough that avoiding infection is a good idea. But how likely is it? Very hard to measure.Continue Reading
What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.Continue Reading
I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, to feminism, politics and risk culture, so I hope you’ll find one you like. From each of the main themes I read this year, I’ve chosen one or two that I really loved.Continue Reading
Every year I do a review of my reading for the year, with recommendations for my favourite books. As usual, I’m only reviewing the non fiction here, with one token fiction book. This year I’ve managed during all those lockdowns to read a lot more books generally. This time I’veContinue Reading
When is the current Omicron wave likely to peak around Australia? Plausibly the NSW peak is about now (the middle of January) with other states following in the next week or three.Continue Reading
Now that we have the biggest Covid19 outbreak yet in NSW, what is the impact likely to be on hospitals? A fast growing outbreak with lower hospitalisations is still likely to lead to more total Covid19 hospitalisations than we have seen here so far. Continue Reading
Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.
There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading
If everyone in Australia who can be vaccinated, is vaccinated, what can we expect when Covid19 becomes widespread in the population? There are likely to still be significant pressures on the hospital system, particularly if it happens too quickly.
If, after everyone in Australia who can be is vaccinated (I’ve assumed 95% of everyone 12 and over), everyone in Australia is exposed to Covid19, what can we expect from Covid19? We can expect around 400,000 – 600,000 eventual hospitalisations (60% of whom would have been vaccinated), with around 50,000 – 80,000 (70% of whom would have been vaccinated) of those ended up in ICU. Around 200,000 – 400,000 people are likely to end up with Long Covid, the majority of whom (150,000 – 250,000) will be of working age. And around 15,000 – 25,000 (50% of whom would have been vaccinated) deaths from Covid are likely to occur. How long will that take? That depends on how well we control the spread of Covid19.Continue Reading
Are the Doherty Institute assumptions about vaccine effectiveness optimistic? And does it matter? Yes and yes. So we should monitor the spread of Covid19 closely as vaccination rates increase, and use 70% and 80% adult vaccination rates as guides, rather than stick to then as rigid rules to decide how to ease restrictions across Australia.
A reminder that the Doherty Institute report makes it clear that to control the Delta variant, ongoing public health and social measures such as contact tracing, isolating, and restraints on social mixing (compared with pre virus days) are needed no matter what vaccination rate is achieved, so a gradual guided relaxation of measures is what is recommended anyway.Continue Reading
The Covid19 outbreak in NSW continues to grow despite a gradually tightening lockdown. The current doubling time is about 11 days, meaning that my simple model is projecting 1,000 cases a day by the end of August. It seems the only way out is vaccination. How much vaccination? The DohertyContinue Reading