How does NSW stack up against the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence? Pretty well, but there are a few things (including mandatory facemasks) that we could do better. With Sydney in the midst of a new outbreak of Covid19 (for all my northern hemisphere readers, you’ll probably wish forContinue Reading
Europe is having a second wave of Covid19. But what can we learn from our neighbours in East Asia? Quite a lot, we should pay more attention to them. The world is full of tough news about a second wave of Covid, particularly in Europe. But I thought it wasContinue Reading
Get a bunch of actuaries together (particularly life insurance actuaries) and sooner or later we will start talking about pandemics. Fortunately for us, our experiences are almost entirely theoretical. We’ve lived through AIDS (for the life insurance actuary, a very slow-moving pandemic, where the challenge was more about underwriting thanContinue Reading
Four years after starting my COVID reflections series, I’ve learned that:
– Looking for a bit of beauty every day is a great way of finding positives in the world
– Writing about what is happening the world is much better for my state of mind than doomscrolling
– A community of people reading and reflecting is even better!
– Basic, widely available data and information is a vital part of government’s role, and one which they are still not doing enough.Continue Reading
Book Review: Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models can lead us Astray and What we can do about it, by Erica Thompson
Today I’m reviewing a book that I loved, a book for any actuary, or indeed model builder or model user to read. I felt as if I highlighted half of this book, so I’ll try and give you enough of a flavour of Thompson’s insights so that you feel compelled to read it yourself.Continue Reading
Every year I do a review of my reading for the year, with recommendations for my favourite books. As usual, I’m only reviewing the non fiction here, as my fiction reading is a lot less interesting, although I’ve got a couple of fiction books at the end that I reallyContinue Reading
Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view.
On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter.Continue Reading
My latest COVID-19 post includes my submission to the Australian Long Covid enquiry, noting that there is a significant proportion of the population who have long term serious after effects from a COVID-19 infection, and that more data is needed.Continue Reading
With the number of COVID-19 cases in Australia continuing to increase, Long Covid cases are going to continue to grow in Australia. Based on the UK statistics, current case numbers could lead to up to 100,000 cases in the Australian population.Continue Reading
What does “living with Covid” mean in Australia in 2022? There is continued pressure on the hospital and health care system, with illness creating disruption in most workplaces. It is likely that life expectancy has reduced by 6 – 12 months.
The impact is definitely substantially worse than a bad flu season, but at the same time it isn’t the catastrophe it would have been without an effective vaccine.
So what should we do about it? My view is that we should continue to look for mitigations that work to limit the spread of Covid19, without having too much of an impact on day to day lives – a vaccination plus strategy. On vaccination, we should make a bigger attempt to vaccinate those who aren’t yet fully vaccinated – the school children in the 5-11 age group are not even 50% vaccinated yet, only two thirds of adults have had their third booster doses. We should be monitoring and improving ventilation and/or air filtration in all public buildings – eg schools, offices, shopping centres. While that will be expensive, the cost of this much illness is quite substantial, even ignoring the human implications. We should continue the cultural change we have started of wearing masks where possible (such as public transport) and staying home when we are sick. Reducing the spread of this disease is worth quite a lot both economically and socially.Continue Reading