Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view.
On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter.Continue Reading
My latest COVID-19 post includes my submission to the Australian Long Covid enquiry, noting that there is a significant proportion of the population who have long term serious after effects from a COVID-19 infection, and that more data is needed.Continue Reading
With the number of COVID-19 cases in Australia continuing to increase, Long Covid cases are going to continue to grow in Australia. Based on the UK statistics, current case numbers could lead to up to 100,000 cases in the Australian population.Continue Reading
What does “living with Covid” mean in Australia in 2022? There is continued pressure on the hospital and health care system, with illness creating disruption in most workplaces. It is likely that life expectancy has reduced by 6 – 12 months.
The impact is definitely substantially worse than a bad flu season, but at the same time it isn’t the catastrophe it would have been without an effective vaccine.
So what should we do about it? My view is that we should continue to look for mitigations that work to limit the spread of Covid19, without having too much of an impact on day to day lives – a vaccination plus strategy. On vaccination, we should make a bigger attempt to vaccinate those who aren’t yet fully vaccinated – the school children in the 5-11 age group are not even 50% vaccinated yet, only two thirds of adults have had their third booster doses. We should be monitoring and improving ventilation and/or air filtration in all public buildings – eg schools, offices, shopping centres. While that will be expensive, the cost of this much illness is quite substantial, even ignoring the human implications. We should continue the cultural change we have started of wearing masks where possible (such as public transport) and staying home when we are sick. Reducing the spread of this disease is worth quite a lot both economically and socially.Continue Reading
What do we know about the risks of Long Covid? A closer look at Long Covid, what we know about how risky it is, and how serious it is. It can be very serious, enough that avoiding infection is a good idea. But how likely is it? Very hard to measure.Continue Reading
What does a 1 in 1000 year flood mean? Something labelled that way is now much more likely to happen than 1 in 1,000, as rainfall becomes both heavier, and more intense because of climate change.Continue Reading
What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.Continue Reading
I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, to feminism, politics and risk culture, so I hope you’ll find one you like. From each of the main themes I read this year, I’ve chosen one or two that I really loved.Continue Reading
When is the current Omicron wave likely to peak around Australia? Plausibly the NSW peak is about now (the middle of January) with other states following in the next week or three.Continue Reading
Now that we have the biggest Covid19 outbreak yet in NSW, what is the impact likely to be on hospitals? A fast growing outbreak with lower hospitalisations is still likely to lead to more total Covid19 hospitalisations than we have seen here so far. Continue Reading