On:
In: Covid19, Statistics, Work and life

The Covid19 outbreak in NSW continues to grow despite a gradually tightening lockdown. The current doubling time is about 11 days, meaning that my simple model is projecting 1,000 cases a day by the end of August. It seems the only way out is vaccination. How much vaccination? The DohertyContinue Reading

On:
In: Climate Change, Statistics

Today the IPCC released its sixth assessment report, and I’ve had a look at what it says about extremes – weather and climate. In this land of drought and flooding rain, extreme weather is already damaging, and the IPCC report makes it clear that it is going to get worse – the extremes get more extreme faster than the medians move. Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Demography, Statistics

What factors seem to lead to higher or lower vaccination rates in NSW? I’ve adjusted the NSW location vaccination rates for the age mix of each location. The strongest correlation is with income levels – the higher the income, the more likely the population is to have had at least one dose of vaccine. Surprisingly, the percentage of the population who speaks a language other than English doesn’t seem to make much difference. Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Statistics

With the delta variant widespread, Australia needs to aim for around 80% vaccination of the whole population before widespread opening of international borders to avoid lockdowns and unacceptably high deaths from Covid19, based on my use of The University of Melbourne’s Covid19 modelling. We could open up in a limited way at earlier levels (at least 50% of the population vaccinated), but to avoid frequent lockdowns, we would have to limit international arrivals until vaccination is close to population wide. And even when opening up happens, many of the non pharmaceutical measures (like masks, contact tracing, regular testing etc) we have grown used to since Covid19 came to Australia will still be with us.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

Australia has had very little Covid19 compared with the rest of the world, due to very strict border controls and lockdowns. But with the rest of the world opening up as their populations are increasingly vaccinated, how does Australia do the same? I look at some initial modelling from the Burnet Institute.  My key takeaways? The better the vaccine efficacy (particularly against any form of infection and transmission) the more we can open up without serious Covid19 disease. And waiting until a reasonable proportion of the population is vaccinated (say 40%) makes a real difference to the incidence of severe disease and death.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Statistics

I wanted to do some interesting analysis of who is getting vaccinated in Australia, in the different categories, now that more than 4 million doses have been delivered. But I can’t. Why not? Because unlike every other rich country I have randomly googled, very little data is publicly available. So instead, I’ve looked at what data other countries have been tracking, and why it would help our rollout.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Feature, Statistics

How do we balance the risks of vaccines and the benefits of our population being vaccinated? How do we balance the individual risks and benefits and the collective risks and benefits?

My view is that we should be asking people to take remote individual risks (such as vaccination complications) for the collective benefit (ultimately population immunity against Covid19). And we need to have this conversation as a society as population immunity becomes closer.Continue Reading

On:
In: Feature, Feminism

Sobering statistics on sexual harassment in Australia. Of the 20 million people in Australia over the age of 15, in the last 12 months approximately 1.6 million women and 840,000 men – nearly 2.5 million people – have experienced sexual harassment of any kind. Included in this are 148,000 women and 57,000 men who were sexually assaulted  – 201,000 people.Continue Reading