Latest Posts
What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than happening coincidentally?
What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.Continue Reading
What did I read in 2021?
I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, to feminism, politics and risk culture, so I hope you’ll find one you like. From each of the main themes I read this year, I’ve chosen one or two that I really loved.Continue Reading
When is the current Omicron wave likely to peak around Australia?
When is the current Omicron wave likely to peak around Australia? Plausibly the NSW peak is about now (the middle of January) with other states following in the next week or three.Continue Reading
Looking at the omicron outbreak impacts on hospitals in NSW
Now that we have the biggest Covid19 outbreak yet in NSW, what is the impact likely to be on hospitals? A fast growing outbreak with lower hospitalisations is still likely to lead to more total Covid19 hospitalisations than we have seen here so far. Continue Reading
Is Omicron less severe than Delta? Still too early to tell
Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.
There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading
The Omicron Variant is spreading fast around the world
The Omicron Variant is spreading fast around the world. All the evidence is pointing to higher infectiousness, and less effectiveness of vaccines. It is still not clear whether the disease is less severe. But even a less severe variant is still bad news.
Here in Australia, already nearly 5% of cases being sequenced are Omicron (rather than Delta) and NSW is back to rapid increase in case numbers from being relatively flat for the last couple of months, with a few superspreader events in the news.Continue Reading
Covid19 death rates are higher in low income countries
Death rates from Covid19 in low income countries have been around double the death rates for the same age in high-income countries. This is not easy to see from headline news for two reasons – low income countries tend to have younger populations, so the population level death rates are lower, and low income countries also have much poorer statistical reporting, making it hard to tease out actual death rates.Continue Reading
Climate reflections – what do all the climate pledges actually mean?
As COP 26 finishes up, where have we got to? The world’s promises, if they are kept, have improved the likely outcome by nearly 1 degree Celsius. So far, though, most countries have made promises, rather than committing to legislation or policy.Continue Reading
Climate reflections – Australian emissions
With COP26, the global conference to achieve action on climate change, starting tomorrow, I’ve taken a quick look at the data (as opposed to the rhetoric) on Australia’s current progress on carbon emissions. Two great graphs recently caught my eye.Continue Reading
Vaccination rates depend on good population estimates – are Australia’s accurate?
Vaccination take-up rates are based on population estimates. For Australia as a whole, the ABS’s estimates of population are probably quite accurate. But the more localised the analysis, the greater the approximations required. Inaccuracies in population estimates are more likely in areas with large transient populations, particularly those who do not have citizenship or permanent residency. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Melbourne City Council area has the highest transient population and the lowest first dose vaccination rate in the whole of NSW and Victoria.Continue Reading