Statistics (Page 2)

On:
In: Covid19, Health care, Statistics

What does “living with Covid” mean in Australia in 2022? There is continued pressure on the hospital and health care system, with illness creating disruption in most workplaces. It is likely that life expectancy has reduced by 6 – 12 months.

The impact is definitely substantially worse than a bad flu season, but at the same time it isn’t the catastrophe it would have been without an effective vaccine.

So what should we do about it? My view is that we should continue to look for mitigations that work to limit the spread of Covid19, without having too much of an impact on day to day lives – a vaccination plus strategy. On vaccination, we should make a bigger attempt to vaccinate those who aren’t yet fully vaccinated – the school children in the 5-11 age group are not even 50% vaccinated yet, only two thirds of adults have had their third booster doses. We should be monitoring and improving ventilation and/or air filtration in all public buildings – eg schools, offices, shopping centres. While that will be expensive, the cost of this much illness is quite substantial, even ignoring the human implications. We should continue the cultural change we have started of wearing masks where possible (such as public transport) and staying home when we are sick. Reducing the spread of this disease is worth quite a lot both economically and socially.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Health care, Statistics

What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Risk management, Statistics

Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.

There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Statistics

The Omicron Variant is spreading fast around the world. All the evidence is pointing to higher infectiousness, and less effectiveness of vaccines. It is still not clear whether the disease is less severe. But even a less severe variant is still bad news.

Here in Australia, already nearly 5% of cases being sequenced are Omicron (rather than Delta) and NSW is back to rapid increase in case numbers from being relatively flat for the last couple of months, with a few superspreader events in the news.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Statistics

Death rates from Covid19 in low income countries have been around double the death rates for the same age in high-income countries. This is not easy to see from headline news for two reasons – low income countries tend to have younger populations, so the population level death rates are lower, and low income countries also have much poorer statistical reporting, making it hard to tease out actual death rates.Continue Reading

On:
In: Covid19, Statistics

Vaccination take-up rates are based on population estimates. For Australia as a whole, the ABS’s estimates of population are probably quite accurate. But the more localised the analysis, the greater the approximations required. Inaccuracies in population estimates are more likely in areas with large transient populations, particularly those who do not have citizenship or permanent residency. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Melbourne City Council area has the highest transient population and the lowest first dose vaccination rate in the whole of NSW and Victoria.Continue Reading