When is the current Omicron wave likely to peak around Australia? Plausibly the NSW peak is about now (the middle of January) with other states following in the next week or three.Continue Reading
Now that we have the biggest Covid19 outbreak yet in NSW, what is the impact likely to be on hospitals? A fast growing outbreak with lower hospitalisations is still likely to lead to more total Covid19 hospitalisations than we have seen here so far. Continue Reading
Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.
There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading
The Omicron Variant is spreading fast around the world. All the evidence is pointing to higher infectiousness, and less effectiveness of vaccines. It is still not clear whether the disease is less severe. But even a less severe variant is still bad news.
Here in Australia, already nearly 5% of cases being sequenced are Omicron (rather than Delta) and NSW is back to rapid increase in case numbers from being relatively flat for the last couple of months, with a few superspreader events in the news.Continue Reading
Death rates from Covid19 in low income countries have been around double the death rates for the same age in high-income countries. This is not easy to see from headline news for two reasons – low income countries tend to have younger populations, so the population level death rates are lower, and low income countries also have much poorer statistical reporting, making it hard to tease out actual death rates.Continue Reading
Vaccination take-up rates are based on population estimates. For Australia as a whole, the ABS’s estimates of population are probably quite accurate. But the more localised the analysis, the greater the approximations required. Inaccuracies in population estimates are more likely in areas with large transient populations, particularly those who do not have citizenship or permanent residency. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Melbourne City Council area has the highest transient population and the lowest first dose vaccination rate in the whole of NSW and Victoria.Continue Reading
If everyone in Australia who can be vaccinated, is vaccinated, what can we expect when Covid19 becomes widespread in the population? There are likely to still be significant pressures on the hospital system, particularly if it happens too quickly.
If, after everyone in Australia who can be is vaccinated (I’ve assumed 95% of everyone 12 and over), everyone in Australia is exposed to Covid19, what can we expect from Covid19? We can expect around 400,000 – 600,000 eventual hospitalisations (60% of whom would have been vaccinated), with around 50,000 – 80,000 (70% of whom would have been vaccinated) of those ended up in ICU. Around 200,000 – 400,000 people are likely to end up with Long Covid, the majority of whom (150,000 – 250,000) will be of working age. And around 15,000 – 25,000 (50% of whom would have been vaccinated) deaths from Covid are likely to occur. How long will that take? That depends on how well we control the spread of Covid19.Continue Reading
How does Australia’s 2021 Covid19 wave compare to 2020? So far, cases are around three times higher and deaths are around a third of last year.
Today’s analysis is a quick graph. I’ve seen this graph from lots of other countries, but now here in Australia our latest wave is big enough to categorically show that vaccination has made a difference compared with the Victorian wave last year. As you can see, in 2020, deaths lagged cases by around 2-3 weeks. This year, the death rates compared with numbers of cases is substantially lower, and the rate also looks as if it is slightly improving.Continue Reading
In NSW in this wave of Covid19, are hospitals starting to ration care and send more sick people home as they run out of space? The statistics suggest that hospital in the home is being used more and more to take the pressure off hospitals. But some of the reduction in hospitalised cases could also be vaccination starting to reduce the seriousness of Covid19 illnesses.Continue Reading
Are the Doherty Institute assumptions about vaccine effectiveness optimistic? And does it matter? Yes and yes. So we should monitor the spread of Covid19 closely as vaccination rates increase, and use 70% and 80% adult vaccination rates as guides, rather than stick to then as rigid rules to decide how to ease restrictions across Australia.
A reminder that the Doherty Institute report makes it clear that to control the Delta variant, ongoing public health and social measures such as contact tracing, isolating, and restraints on social mixing (compared with pre virus days) are needed no matter what vaccination rate is achieved, so a gradual guided relaxation of measures is what is recommended anyway.Continue Reading